Research

On the Predictability of Industry Returns (JMP)

Extract industry-level indicators from macro, fundamentals, and 13F holdings. Methods: rolling PCA, state-space models.

Holdings-Based Expectations and Revealed Industry Expectations (RIE)

Reverse-engineer investor beliefs from portfolio weights; map to industry signals.

Replication: Koijen & Yogo (2019) Asset Demand System

Robustness analysis for holdings-based demand estimation and aggregation.

Kalman Filter & Factor Models for Industry Signals

DFM and custom state-space models for nowcasting/predicting industry returns.